Timing is criticalPosted: November 3, 2019
Timing of an event can have strategic effects!
Consider this: On 28 October President Trump tweeted that Abu Bakar Al Bagdadi, the shadowy caliph of the so-called Islamic State (IS) has killed himself. In his gleeful Trump described Baghdadi running weeping and whining into a dead end tunnel before blowing himself up. Three of his children also died with him. Special Operation Forces and a dog of their unit were credited for the kill in the remote village of Barisa. A person close to Baghdadi had ratted upon him and is likely to receive a bounty of US dollars twenty five million and a relocation for him and his family to a safer location. Like Osama bin Laden (OBL), Baghdadi was quickly buried at sea. A few days later IS confirmed that their leader had been killed and announced his replacement – a person calling himself Abu Ibrahim Al Hashmi Qureishi. At the height of his power Baghdadi had ruled wide swathes in Iraq and Syria. He controlled oilfields and generated enough revenues to issue his own currency. It is interesting to note that the killing of Baghdadi came at an important juncture. Trump is up for re-election and is also facing impeachment charges for influencing the President of Ukraine to open corruption proceedings against Hunter Biden, the son of his political rival former Vice President Joe Biden.
On May 2, 2011, OBL the chief of Al Qaeda was eliminated in the vicinity of Pakistan Military Academy in the town of Kakul in Abottabad. The bold special operations mission deep into Pakistani territory left the national authorities red faced. They were taken by surprise. Leon Panetta – the director CIA – gloated “Pakistanis were either incompetent or complacent.” Pakistanis may have been collaborating with the Americans but their strategic ally did not consider it necessary to share the timing of the raid. There was a reason for utmost secrecy for the Obama administration. The president was up for re-elections and failure was a risk he could ill afford. Arguably Carter had lost his re-election operation in the botched operation to rescue the hostages from their embassy in Tehran. Pictures were flashed of a somber looking Obama – the commander in chief – sitting in the command post in an unnamed location intently watching the live streaming feeds of the operation to kill the elusive OBL in far off Pakistan. Obama’s approval ratings soared and he was re-elected. Whether Trump can repeat Obama’s feat is yet to be seen.
Two killings of high value targets (HVT), as the American are won’t to call high profile objectives, have also adversely affected Pakistan. In the first case the Afghan peace talks were sabotaged and the next one indicated a clear Pakistani support for the Afghan Taliban. In July 2015, as serious negotiations were under way with the representatives of the Taliban in Murree, the hill resort near the Pakistani capital Islamabad, information was leaked that Mullah Omar, the head of the Afghan Taliban was dead. He had been dead since April 2013. The news was broken by Afghan intelligence agency – the National Directorate of Security (NDS). The aim was disrupt the talk and in this they were successful. The negotiations that were poised meaningfully were suspended and the Taliban delegation left immediately.
Mullah Omar was replaced by Mullah Akhtar Mansoor. Mansoor was killed in an American drone strike on 29 July 2015, while travelling through Ahmed Wal in the Pakistani province of Balochistan. Pakistan got a lot of bad press and Mansoor’s gory death was taken as smoking gun evidence against it.
Americans have also created situations leading to the executions of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi. Mohamed Morsi, the first democratically elected president in Egypt was removed through street protests in 2013, most likely sponsored by agencies and governments opposed to the Muslim brotherhood. He had barely been in power for a little over a year. He died of a heart attack in a court hearing in June this year. He had been prison ever since his removal nearly six years ago. These deaths have compounded unrest in the Middle East. Timing has been critical. ME has to be kept on the boil for those with vested interests.